Lee Greaves - 26/03/2021
Hi, Denizens. Now I have your attention with the title I want to make it clear that this is not a fundamental analysis on the hottest DeFi name going on in the social threads at the moment. This is not about who is going to revolutionise the DeFi space… again. This is fundamental analysis on you, my valued readers. This is an article about how these hypes are just rehashes of what has happens time and again.
Let me adjust my spectacles, put in my false teeth, gather around the lemon tree like Abraham Simpson (yes, this reference really does prove my age) and tell you about a time in the days of yore.
Back in the fabled time before COVID-19, unlimited fiscal stimulus and WAP there was the uneasy autumn ushering in the famous crypto winter. This was the early days of 2018 and I was a budding crypto enthusiast, dazzled by the bright future of blockchain freeing us from all the centralised, corrupt imprisoning systems the elite had captured us in. It was revolution, baby, and we were looking to... well let’s face it, take a rocket to the moon.
But to build that metaphorical rocket we needed the be in the next big thing. Bitcoin was old and boring and after the soaring ETH prices we got sick of high transaction fees - sound familiar?
Now in this time Binance was a baby and only just taking market share away from Bittrex as the top exchange (and deservedly took BNB from $8 to $250) but there were also other projects that were promising the world. Peepcoin (PCN) was one such project.
PCN was cheaper than chips and you could stake for insane rewards. If it just moved a couple of sats our rocket was taking off. Trouble was everyone jumped on when the it had moved a couple of sats upwards believing this was the take-off to elevate them out of working class hell. Suddenly developers went dark and investors lost faith. Then someone came to recover the project. Then the holders exited their bags leaving the ‘faithful’ with the image we see below. The coin we all knew would revolutionise crypto didn’t. It pumped price just enough for people to drop their bags on the market - a nice term for the ones too slow or too desperate to cash out in time. Below shows stagnant price of PCN now, note the 0% volume in the last 24 hours.
There are so many stories just like the PCN one. Now I am not saying SafeMoon is the next PCN, I guarantee it’s not. But I am alarmed at the amount of interest it is gaining and the lack of awareness of tokenomics being expressed.
There are over 616 trillion of these tokens, 616,000 billion, 616,000,000 million (figure B). That is an astronomical (literal, not figurative) number. The value went up 21% in a 24 hour period and still didn't move above one satoshi (figure A).
For what looks like just another DeFi project in a sea of a hundreds, be careful. This ticks all the keywords on its website: rewards, burn, safe, moon, solve problems, etc. It's also used on PanCake swap which has a food title so it must be good.
The white paper is 670 words long. That's the effort they put in to convince you to give them money, 670 words, including headings. For comparrison this article is around 700 words and I don't want any of your money. Unless you want to...
Now I mentioned BNB before because it has had great price action in its life, outperforming BTC regularly during market cycles. But we didn't know this would be the case when it traded in 2018. But what we did know was the contents of it's white paper and the vision for the future. It is professional, detailed and organised. Something looking to reassure you about dropping some of your wealth into. And if you did and left it alone you'd be reaping the rewards.
Like I announced at the beginning of this article this is not a fundamental analysis on SafeMoon, it is an analysis on the crypto community. This is an article for you members to think about what you are investing in. There is money to be made in this token, but the risk is huge too. Make sure intelligent, rational decisions when looking to buy into a project and not just the promises of solving complex problems in less words than the average high school essay.